Strategic Plan

Megatrends

Plan Details

Megatrends are global macro forces that will transform business, the marketplaces that they operate in, and society at large.

US author John Naisbitt first coined the term more than 35 years ago in his first book ‘Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives'.

How do these impact your strategic plans? (Please tweet responses to @chriscfox)

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Chris Fox

Analysis

PESTEL Analysis

Political

Economic

Social

Technological

Environmental

Legal

Insight Details

Social Media

The invention of the iPhone in 2007 has, over the past decade, facilitated an explosion in the use of social media. (Source: 10 trends for the 2020s – mallowstreet)

Blockchain/Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT)

Despite significant hype and many use cases put forward, scalability and cost pressures mean real-world applications remain elusive. (Source: No commercial use for blockchain, say banks - bobsguide.com published 09/10/2019)

Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise. Maersk and IBM last month shut down their global platform that was supposed to bring blockchain to the shipping industry. Other big bets are moving slowly. (Source: Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise - WSJ published 15/12/2022)

Personal/Data Privacy

People are becoming increasingly concerned with how their personal data is being used, exposed and/or misused.

According to one report, the first six months of 2019 have seen more than 3,800 publicly disclosed breaches exposing an incredible 4.1 billion compromised records. (Source: Data Breaches Expose 4.1 Billion Records In First Six Months Of 2019 published 20/08/2019)

Some high profile cases include:

The 'gig economy'

The 'gig economy' is where independent workers accept piece work, instead of holding regular jobs. It is most popularly characterised by businesses like Uber. But, it also includes a broader move towards self-employment and micro-businesses.

More recently, experts have started to conclude that the gig economy has had less impact on the economy than first imagined. (Source: How Estimates of the Gig Economy Went Wrong - WSJ)

The Internet of Things (IoT)

"As computers and connectivity become cheaper, it makes sense to bake them into more and more things that are not, in themselves, computers—from nappies and coffee machines to cows and factory robots—creating an 'internet of things', or IoT (see Technology Quarterly). It is a slow revolution that has been gathering pace for years, as computers have found their way into cars, telephones and televisions. But the transformation is about to go into overdrive. One forecast is that by 2035 the world will have a trillion connected computers, built into everything from food packaging to bridges and clothes." Source: Now the world will change as computers spread into everyday objects - Chips with everything published 12/09/2019

By 2020, there will be seven times as many connected devices on the planet as people. (Source: 2020: Preparing for a Decade of Change and Transformation)

Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning

AI encompasses a variety of different methods. AI researcher Pedro Domingos explains that there are five basic approaches to machine learning, from neural nets that mimic the brain, to support vector machines that classify different types of information and graphical models that use a more statistical approach. (Source: Four Things Every Leader Should Know About Applying Artificial Intelligence To Business – Innovation Excellence published 01/11/2018)

Considerations:

  • Artificial intelligence will destroy some forms of work and create new forms of work. No-one knows for sure what the net effect on jobs will be. But the skills required to succeed in the future will be different. The invention of the wheel in about 5,000 BC meant that you needed fewer people to move a heavy stone block. Instead of making the rest redundant, they simply started moving more and larger stones. The same can be said for steam power, electricity, and computing power. And there is little reason to believe that the same will not be true of artificial intelligence, and whatever follows it. 
  • AI skills are the fastest-growing category on Linkedin, increasing by 190% globally from 2015 to 2017.
  • Simultaneously, what will matter most at work is what is left after AI and automation - humanity. The fastest-growing skills gaps relate to soft skills: oral communication, people management, time management and leadership.
  • Around 14% of jobs currently done by humans are ‘highly vulnerable’ to automation, and another 32% will see significant changes to the way they are carried out, according to recent research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (Source: Beyond 100 - Whitepaper | Barclays Private Bank)
  • Research by the IMF suggests that automation will affect women's jobs disproportionately. This is because they tend to be employed in more routine jobs.
  • The ethical considerations become more complex as machines take on more complex roles. For example, in a situation where the death of either a passenger or a pedestrian is unavoidable, how should an autonomous vehicle choose?
  • Google's DeepMind is now better than 99.8% of all human StarCraft II players. (Source: DeepMind’s StarCraft 2 AI is now better than 99.8 percent of all human players - The Verge published 30/10/2019) See also: The coolest thing I've seen all year (AI).
  • OpenAI:

    OpenAI's ChatGPT has stunned the world with that art of what is already possible in 2022.

Emerging business models

There is a gradual shift from business models predicated on selling products to business models predicated on service subscriptions, shared ownership and rental:

A platform is a business model that allows multiple participants (producers and consumers) to connect to it, interact with one another, and create and exchange value. The most successful companies in the digital era, including Alibaba, Amazon, and Facebook, were all designed on platform business models. (Source: Insurance beyond digital: The rise of ecosystems and platforms | McKinsey) Uber and AirBnb are other examples of well-known platform businesses.

An ecosystem, meanwhile, is an interconnected set of services that allows users to fulfil a variety of needs in one integrated experience.

  • Consumer (B2C) ecosystems currently emerging around the world tend to concentrate on needs such as travel, healthcare, or housing.
  • Business-to-business (B2B) ecosystems generally revolve around a certain decision maker—for example, marketing and sales, operations, procurement, or finance professionals.

(Source: Insurance beyond digital: The rise of ecosystems and platforms | McKinsey)

Personalisation and Mass Customisation

Since the second industrial revolution, commerce has been driven by economies of scale: standardising products and services and then flogging them to as many people as possible. (Think of the Model T Ford, available in any colour as long as it is black!)

But that is changing. Technology is allowing firms to deliver services personalised to individual customers and customised to increasingly small customer segments.

This is enabled by technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, 3D printing. AI allows firms to line about customers on an increasingly granular level, whilst 3D printing allows them to personalise products for those customers.

Examples:

  • Shapeways profiles customers before sending them a selection of clothing. The customer buys what they want and returns the rest. The AI learns from these choices and then sends a better selection next time. (Source: Bigger Is No Longer Better When It Comes to Consumer Brands published 29/08/2018)

Climate change and resource depletion

  • As the world becomes more populous, urbanised and prosperous, demand for energy, food and water will rise. But the Earth has a finite amount of natural resources to satisfy this demand. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)

The fourth Industrial Revolution

The first Industrial Revolution was powered by the invention of the steam engine. The second was powered by electricity and characterised by the development of the mass production assembly line and the division of labour. The third was powered by the development of the digital computer. The fourth is being powered by artificial intelligence.

(Image source: 4th Industrial Revolution Will Change Companies from the Inside – Innovation Excellence)

The fourth Industrial Revolution is powered by a combination of:

  • Artificial Intelligence and machine learning,
  • the Internet of Things (IoT),
  • additive manufacturing or 3D printing, and
  • automation and robotics

BNY Mellon has described it as "the convergence of physical and digital that can create a digital feedback loop leading a specific outcome in the real world." (Source: The many faces of Industry 4.0)

The digital revolution has no boundaries or borders. It is changing behaviour and expectations as much as the tools used to deliver new services and experiences. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)

Demographic change & ageing populations

Experts are still contemplating the impact of COVID-19 on average life expectancies.

Shift in global economic power

Some emerging economies that were growing rapidly are now in recession. Commodity prices have played a considerable role in sending these economies into reverse. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)

Urbanisation

  • Today, more than half the world’s population live in urban areas and almost all of the new growth will take place in lesser known medium-sized cities of developing countries. (Source: Megatrends - Issues - PwC UK)

  • 1.5 million people are added to the global urban population every week. Source: 2020: Preparing for a Decade of Change and Transformation

  • Baby boomers are a particular demographic wave moving into cities to enjoy their amenities post-retirement. (Source: Baby boomers instigating city changes – mallowstreet)

  • The increasing pressures of urbanisation are leading to increasing interest in 'smart cities' (Source: Anatomy of a smart city)

  • As a counter-trend, worsening commutes and increasing real-estate prices mean that large employers will look for alternatives to concentration in large cities. This could include smaller regional offices, flexible working from home, or working from localised shared work-centres with virtual teams enabled by collaboration technologies.

Open question: Remote working has been proven to be effective for most office workers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Will this slow or even reverse the trend towards urbanisation, particularly in the developed world?

Generational waves

By 2019, Generation Z will outnumber millennials, and for the first time in modern history, 5 generations will work side by side.

Demographic cohorts:

  • Gen Z: those born from 1997 onward. 1/3rd of the global population and 1/5th of the working population.
  • Gen Y or Millenials or Echo Boomers: those born between the mid-80s and the early 2000s.
  • Gen X: those born from the early to mid-1960s to the early 1980s.
  • Baby Boomers: those born between the mid-1940s and the early to mid-1960s
  • The Silent Generation or G.I. Generation (US): those born between the mid-1920s and the early-mid 1940s.

Online

In 2019, for the first time, globally, people will spend more hours a day on the Internet than watching TV, consuming more content than ever before in history.

Increased nationalism

As evidenced by Brexit, Trump, and the Scottish and Catalan independence movements.

This will:

  • make immigration harder,
  • exacerbate the refugee crisis, and
  • exacerbate the impact of ageing populations on developed nations.

This will extend to the digital sphere:

  • China is developing a shadow internet, and
  • some non-European firms are choosing to block European web visitors rather than comply with GDPR regulations.

Big Tech regulation

Concerns about data privacy will:

  • lead to increase regulation, such as the GDPR
  • cause some people to close their accounts, but more to use ad blockers and opt out of cookies.

Big Tech taxation

Local and national authorities are looking for more effective ways to tax big tech firms who redirect profits to lower tax jurisdictions:

  • The UK: planning a digital tax of 2% on tech companies
  • The EU: tax reform has petered out.
  • The US:
    • Seattle: head tax
    • San Francisco: Proposition C
  • India, South Korea, Mexico and Chile are all working on the same idea.

Big Tech antitrust

The US has traditionally shied away from this fearing it could stifle innovation, but Europe has a freer hand and fewer local tech giants.

Increasing wealth and consumption, and reducing extreme poverty

Over the last 25 years, more than a billion people have lifted themselves out of extreme poverty. The global poverty rate is at its lowest level in recorded history.

In 1970, 48% of the world's population lived in absolute poverty. By 2020, that was down to 9.4%. (Source)

Economic and cyber cold warfare

Global economies may be too integrated for full trade or cyberwarfare. But, escalating tension between the US and China may lead to a cold war.

Data driven life-hacking

We will increasingly turn to data to 'hack' our lives.

This will initially focus on:

  1. Health care: Patients will have access to their own data and medical professionals will have better access to more of it.
  2. Personal finances: It will have a similar effect on personal finance, with improved transparency and individual control co-evolving with better support from professionals.

Organisations will churn and fragment

The average age of a company listed on the S&P 500 Index has fallen from almost 60 years old in the 1950s to less than 20 years currently. Only 60 companies on the Fortune 500 list in 1955 appear on the list in 2017- fewer than 12%. The rest have either gone bankrupt, disappeared after M&A, or they still exist but have tumbled out of the top rankings. (Source: 2020: Preparing for a Decade of Change and Transformation)

The gig economy will move up the value chain. Inter-company collaboration will increase. This will fragment big corporates into smaller autonomous and collaborative ecosystems.

Clean energy

Old technology, like the internal combustion engine, will get smarter before it goes away. For example:

  • an anti-smog device installed on the engine for a few hundred bucks that reduces fuel consumption by 20% and particles by 80%.
  • built-in AI in your car can help you drive greener and cut another 20% off the bill.
  • today, half the energy we use is wasted because we have inefficient systems.

And it is not just technology. Insects have more protein than any other meat. They are lauded as an environment-friendly way to feed a growing population. Already, over 2 billion people worldwide consume insects on a regular basis for a source of protein.

From learning to doing

As the world continues to change their will be a premium on life-long learning. But we will learn that learning from books is no substitute for learning by doing.

Diversity

In 1972 the was only 1 female CEO in Fortune 500 companies. By 2020 there were 41. (Source)

Institutions, including employers, will learn to embrace diversity: of ability, gender diversity, neurodiversity, etc.

Inclusive design - designing products and services for people with different needs from the outset, rather than adapting products and services after the fact - will become more commonplace.

Movements like #metoo will ruthlessly seek out and expose any remaining dark corners.

Pandemic Risk

COVID-19 came as a shock to many. However, the fragility of the global health system has been well understood by experts for many years.

No less than Bill Gates talks very coherently about the dangers of epidemics in this 2015 Ted Talk.

This infographic shows that the world has a long history of dealing pandemics. (Click on the image for a full-screen version)
Pandemic Infographic

At the time of writing COVID-19 remains a live pandemic. The figure of 4.7k death shown on this chart is already well out of date. For the latest facts and figures about COVID-19, see:

See also:

Globalisation

McKinsey & Co ask Is globalization over?

Flexible/Remote/hybrid working

  1. Pre-pandemic 5% of total workdays were being done remotely, but today it's 30% and this number will continue to increase incrementally going forward (Nick Bloom, Stanford University).
  2. 80% of employees would choose a job with flexible work options over a job that only offers traditional office hours and locations (Owl Labs).
  3. 77% of remote workers say they’re more productive when working from home (CoSo Cloud, LLC).
  4. Companies moving to fully #remote are saving 30-50% on their fixed expenses while simultaneously saving commuters 60 minutes per day, resulting in a 2.5% increase in output, per employee, per week (Nick Bloom, Standford University).
  5. The global market for remote work tools is expected to reach $4.07 billion by the end of 2023. (Statista)

The movement towards flexible working has been growing for some time. For example, in the UK in 2018, of the employed population:

  • 7.2% reported working mainly from home.
  • 30% reported having worked from home sometimes.
(Source: Office for National Statistics.)
YouGov Profiles data shows that 40% of workers think they could do their job from home, compared to 54% who say they couldn't. Regional differences show that 48% of London’s workforce say they can complete their work remotely. This is followed closely by two areas bordering the capital, with 44% of workers in both the East and South East of England saying they capable of getting the day’s work done away from the office. (Source: Who are the Britons working from home? | YouGov published 07/04/2020)
The push towards greater adoption of flexible and remote working has been held back by deeply held views that it was not:
  • technically feasible,
  • culturally acceptable.
The COVID-19 lockdown has substantially debunked both of these objections. Forced remote work during lockdown has shown that not only is remote work possible but that for many it is better.
This is despite the fact that, for many, the experience has been less than ideal.
  • The transition was sudden and unplanned. People struggled to acquire, set up and learn to use the technology required for remote work.
  • Many processes are unsuitable for remote work. In general, organisations which had invested in digitising processes found the transition easier.
  • Parents with young children struggled to make the transition to remote working on top of the already difficult transition to remote schooling.
  • Not all homes are suitable for remote work. Conducting your video calls from a well-appointed study is one thing. Doing so from a kitchen table where your children are also trying to do their homework is quite another.
  • The change comes on top of a number of other stresses. For example, people may be concerned about the health of their friends and family. On top of their work lives, their social lives have also been disrupted.
  • Newly remote workers have complained of 'Zoom* fatigue'. That is, the sense that a day spent in video-conference meetings feels more tiring than a day in physical meetings. There are many theories about what could cause this. Some of them relate to the other issues described above rather than to the nature of the meetings themselves.
Some of these struggles will be temporary. Children will return to school. Other stresses will subside. People will get used to the technology. Processes will improve.
And we know from the long-term remote workers that things like 'Zoom fatigue' are neither permanent nor unavoidable.
The advantages of office environments are well understood. For example:
  • Serendipitous conversations around the proverbial water cooler.
  • Quick conversations as you pass each other in the corridor.
  • Greater awareness of peoples' dispositions. When it's OK to interrupt them and when it's better to wait.
  • The creation of social bonds with people even when you're not formally meeting with them.
  • Those shared cups of coffee or drinks after work.
  • Increased non-verbal communications through body language.
  • The role of the commute as a buffer zone between work and home life.
  • Role modelling (informal) and mentoring (formal) between older more experienced workers and younger new recruits.

The COVID-19 lockdown has made illuminated, on the other hand, the many advantages of remote work:

  • Fewer interruptions.
  • Better work-life-balance as a result of less time spent commuting.
  • Less time and money wasted by travelling between meetings.
  • The ability to hire the best person for the job; not just the best person for the job who just happens to live near your office or is willing to relocate.
  • Greater opportunities for people with certain types of disabilities.
  • A reduced environmental footprint.

A survey of just under 1,000 firms by the Institute of Directors (IoD) shows that:

  • 74% plan on maintaining the increase in home working.
  • >50% planned on reducing their long-term use of workplaces.

(Source: Home working here to stay, study of businesses suggests - BBC New)

A smaller survey of bosses whose firms had already cut workplace use suggested 44% of them thought working from home was proving "more effective". (Source: Home working here to stay, study of businesses suggests - BBC New)

A survey of 1,000 UK and US employees who have been working from home since the beginning of COVID-19 found that:

  • 90% said they would remain with an organisation if they were offered the flexibility of remote working.
  • 75% said the level of communication from their employers had increased since they had been away from the office.
  • 51% said communication with colleagues had improved.
  • 85% said they were more positive about remote working.
  • 52% said they wanted remote working to be a permanent fixture.
  • 36% said they would prefer a flexible work/office balance.
  • 70% said their productivity levels have increased since working from home.
  • If work from home became a permanent benefit:
    • 34% said they would miss seeing colleagues every day.
    • 23% said they would miss leaving the house.
    • 49% said the lack of a commute was a bonus.

Source: 90% employees would stay with an organisation if they offer remote working - Employee Benefits published 04/09/2020

A survey conducted by the research firm Gartner reported that 75% of respondents plan to increase the number of permanent remote employees. (Source: How Working From Home Is Changing The Way We Think About Where We Live)

A study of 2,000 UK employees by Owl Labs found that:

  • 45% of employees would be interested in taking a pay cut to continue working remotely long-term.
  • 15% of staff would take a pay cut of 5% to continue working remotely
  • 46% would leave if their organisation chose to reduce their pay as a cost-cutting measure.
  • 41% of staff would consider resigning if they were forced to return to the office.
  • 84% of respondents will continue to work remotely for the rest of 2020.
  • 44% of employees plan to work from home five days a week
  • 55% plan to work a hybrid of home and office working with up to four days being office-based.
  • If their employer made changes to their salary based on new working costs:
    • 51% of respondents would begin looking for new jobs
    • 8% claim they would leave the organisation even if they did not have another job to go to.

(Source: 55% of staff willing to take pay cut to work remotely - Employee Benefits published 15/10/2020)

Another survey by the Future Strategy Club (FSC) found that:

  • 52% of employees feel closer to their families and enjoy better work-life balance after working from home due to Covid.
  • 40% of employees said having now realised they had had a poor work-life balance they would not return to it.

Source: 52% of UK employees enjoy a better work-life balance after home working - Employee Benefits published 05/01/2021

According to a new study commissioned by Slack, data from a survey of 9,032 knowledge workers in the US, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Australia found that:

  • only 12% want to go back to working entirely in an office.
  • The majority of workers—a whopping 72%—want to continue with a hybrid workstyle, a mixture of office work and remote work.
  • 51.6%, report improved work-life balance from remote work, with only 17.8% showing a decline.
  • 45.8% saying things have gotten better in their overall workplace satisfaction, versus only 20% who report a drop. The world’s biggest experiment in work from home is showing that we are generally happier and more satisfied with it.
  • 74.5% have felt no change or an improvement in workplace productivity.

Source: Slack Found Only 12% Of Workers Want To Return To The Office Full Time; This Is Good News

However, instead of returning to the old ways of working when the lockdown is lifted, forward-thinking employers and employees will find new ways of working which provide the best of both alternatives.

If nothing else, we will gain two ways of working instead of one. More individuals will be able to choose between in-office and remote work according to their personal preferences and styles, rather than almost everyone being forced into in-office work whether it suited them or not.

This reconfiguration of work will also provide an opportunity to address some of the toxic meeting cultures found in many organisations.

  • Too many meetings.
  • Poorly structured or absent agendas.
  • Inadequate preparation.
  • Too many and/or the wrong attendees.
  • Poorly chaired meetings.
  • Meetings dominated by the most senior and/or loudest voices rather than those best able to contribute.
  • No clear outcomes.

Simply replicating in-office behaviours and processes into remote environments will reduce, instead of increasing productivity, and lead to more stress instead of less. (See The 5 levels of remote work - and why you're probably at number 2.)

This will largely benefit better educated and more highly paid white-collar workers at the expense of blue-collar workers.
Younger workers have shown great enthusiasm for remote work:
Source: The Deloitte Global Millennial Survey 2020
One big loser in this is likely to be commercial office real estate. Excess capacity may be:
  • used to create more spacious, but expensive, offices that better accommodate social distancing.
  • repurposed as inner-city residential space.

From: Why managers fear a remote work future, 29 July 2021

  • “Remote work empowers those who produce and disempowers those who have succeeded by being excellent diplomats and poor workers, along with those who have succeeded by always finding someone to blame for their failures. It removes the ability to seem productive (by sitting at your desk looking stressed or always being on the phone), and also, crucially, may reveal how many bosses and managers simply don’t contribute to the bottom line.”
  • "and the office started to feel like just another room with internet access"
  • "94 percent of employees surveyed in a Mercer study reported that remote work was either business as usual or better than working in the office, likely because it lacks the distractions, annoyances, and soft abuses that come with co-workers and middle managers. Workers are happier because they don’t have to commute and can be evaluated mostly on their actual work rather than on the optics-driven albatross of “office culture”.

Research from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and labour market analysts Emsi Burning Glass show that 25% of jobs advertised in December last year mentioned hybrid or flexible working, which also includes job shares and working irregular hours. That's up from 19% before the pandemic.

Source: COVID-19: Jobs that offer hybrid working and flexible hours are on the rise | Business News | Sky News

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers' (PwC) Executive Views on Business in 2022 Pulse Survey published on Thursday, 43% of business leaders plan to keep hybrid work options for employees, and 30% plan on making remote work a permanent option. (Source: Remote working is here to stay as managers try to keep staff loyal | ZDNet published 28/01/2022)

According to our study, early in the first lockdown, about

  • 10% of employees were “office cravers”, wanting to work in the office permanently, and
  • 16% were “home dwellers”, who wanted to work from home for ever to fit their professional life around hobbies, mental health or family and friends. But most workers –
  • 74% – fell into the “mixer” category, preferring a balance of office-based and home working.

Source: What does 2022 have in store for hybrid working?

However, this change is not without its risks:

Almost 50% of IT leaders say their organisation’s cyber security isn’t good enough for remote working, according to a recent study in Business Leader. (Source: What does 2022 have in store for hybrid working?)

According to: Work From Home: People Love Even as Wall Street Pushes Office Return - Bloomberg (September 2022)

Big(ger) state

Governments have used things like COVID-19 to increase their role in ordinary civilians lives.

Augmented and Virtual Reality

With AR eyewear you will turn your gaze on almost anything in your surroundings, squint thoughtfully, and immediately view informational content about the object or activity of focus. A quick head nod to confirm you have seen it, and the information will fade away. This will feel like a genuine superpower.

Source: Augmented reality will give us superpowers - Big Think published 16/05/2022

Quantum Computing

The difference between a classical computer and a quantum computer is not like the difference between an old car and a new one. Rather, it’s like the difference between a horse and a hawk: while one can run, the other can fly.

Source: The Need, Promise, and Reality of Quantum Computing | by Jason Roell | Towards Data Science published 01/02/2018

Precision Fermentation

Growing proteins in vats instead of factory farms. See The Future of Food - The New York Times.

Dependence on computer chips

"Manufacturing computer chips has become a mind-bogglingly complicated process that has pushed the world’s most talented engineers to the edge of their capabilities; it is now so difficult to make further advances in the technology that very few firms have the knowledge and the resources to be able compete (sic) in the market. Second, with an annual output of around US$600 billion, production is extremely concentrated for a major global industry. Incredibly, most of the world’s semiconductors are produced on the small island of Taiwan. This puts the industry in a very delicate balance. The ubiquity of these chips in modern life—you’re using billions of transistors while reading this article on your phone or computer—means that the health of the global economy rests on the maintenance of that balance." 

Source: A new look at the microchip’s midlife crisis published 11/10/2022

Growing 'space' sector

The space sector is worth nearly half a trillion dollars and is growing at about 9% annually. It is at an inflection point similar to what commercial air travel experienced after World War II and the internet saw in the 1990s. Source: Space economy: The missing element in your strategy | McKinsey

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