Insight
Title:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML) / Generative AI (GenAI)
Description:

AI has brought automation from the factory floor into the office. It will eventually displace service workers, but perhaps not at the scale and speed some fear. Source: Four macroeconomic forces that are shaping the world - Investment - Pensions Expert published 06/11/2023

AI encompasses a variety of different methods, such as.

  • Machine Learning: AI researcher Pedro Domingos explains that there are five basic approaches to machine learning, from neural nets that mimic the brain, to support vector machines that classify different types of information and graphical models that use a more statistical approach. (Source: Four Things Every Leader Should Know About Applying Artificial Intelligence To Business – Innovation Excellence published 01/11/2018)
  • Generative AI (like ChatGPT, which took the world by storm in November 2022). Generative AI may be text-based, using Large Language Models (LLMs) or, for example, image-based. 
  • Natural Language Processing (NLP). NLP, combined with Generative AI then allows for conversational user interfaces.

Considerations:

  • Artificial intelligence will destroy some forms of work and create new forms of work. No-one knows for sure what the net effect on jobs will be. But the skills required to succeed in the future will be different. The invention of the wheel in about 5,000 BC meant that you needed fewer people to move a heavy stone block. Instead of making the rest redundant, they simply started moving more and larger stones. The same can be said for steam power, electricity, and computing power. And there is little reason to believe that the same will not be true of artificial intelligence, and whatever follows it. 
  • AI skills are the fastest-growing category on Linkedin, increasing by 190% globally from 2015 to 2017.
  • Simultaneously, what will matter most at work is what is left after AI and automation - humanity. The fastest-growing skills gaps relate to soft skills: oral communication, people management, time management and leadership.
  • Around 14% of jobs currently done by humans are ‘highly vulnerable’ to automation, and another 32% will see significant changes to the way they are carried out, according to recent research by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (Source: Beyond 100 - Whitepaper | Barclays Private Bank)
  • Research by the IMF suggests that automation will affect women's jobs disproportionately. This is because they tend to be employed in more routine jobs.
  • The ethical considerations become more complex as machines take on more complex roles. For example, in a situation where the death of either a passenger or a pedestrian is unavoidable, how should an autonomous vehicle choose?
  • Google's DeepMind is now better than 99.8% of all human StarCraft II players. (Source: DeepMind’s StarCraft 2 AI is now better than 99.8 percent of all human players - The Verge published 30/10/2019) See also: The coolest thing I've seen all year (AI).

Impacts:

  • “If we put generative AI together with the basket of automation technologies, we’re looking at a potential of $4.4 trillion of GDP growth globally. That is larger than the size of the United Kingdom.” —McKinsey senior partner Lareina Yee on the implications of global technology trends such as generative AI in Asia in a new episode of The Future of Asia Podcast.
PESTEL:
Technological

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