Have you ever dismissed a "crazy" idea that later turned the world upside down?
You're not alone. Even the sharpest business minds sometimes fail to recognise transformative trends when they first emerge. During a recent #stratChat, leaders shared personal stories of moments they completely "missed" major shifts — from mobile internet to Netflix to personal computing.
The Cost of a Missed Opportunity
Chris Fox, Founder of StratNavApp.com, recalled dismissing early mobile internet technologies like SMS and WAP the first time he heard about them, believing they'd never amount to anything. Meanwhile, others at the chat shared how they scoffed at PCs placed on their desks in the late 1980s, unsure of their purpose.
The result? Businesses that embraced these changes flourished. Those that hesitated—or outright rejected them—fell behind.
Why Smart People Miss Big Trends
Several patterns emerged from these stories:
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Identity Traps: We unconsciously align with a "type" of person (“I'm not a techie”) and filter out innovations that don't fit.
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Short-Term Incentives: We prioritise immediate targets over long-term plays, like the executives who licensed content to Netflix without considering the strategic risk.
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Experience Bias: Ironically, expertise can blind you. If you've succeeded one way for years, it becomes harder to imagine a different future.
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Information Overload: The sheer number of "new things" makes it exhausting to separate noise from genuine innovation.
How You Can Sharpen Your Strategic Radar
You can't predict the future perfectly, but you can significantly reduce your "miss" rate by:
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Building a Systematic Horizon-Scanning Process:
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Set regular review points to explore emerging technologies, business models, and social trends.
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Tools like StratNavApp.com help you embed horizon scanning into your strategic planning rhythm.
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Applying a "Both/And" Mindset:
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Instead of dismissing new ideas outright, ask: "How could this change our world if it succeeds?"
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Strategic thinking isn't about certainty; it's about preparing for multiple plausible futures.
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Creating Small Experimental Bets:
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Allocate resources to test disruptive ideas without jeopardising the core business.
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Think "venture portfolio" rather than "all-or-nothing bet."
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Watching the Outliers:
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Pay attention to extreme users and fringe markets. Innovations often first succeed where the status quo fails people.
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Fostering a Culture of Strategic Curiosity:
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Encourage your teams to challenge assumptions, explore "crazy" ideas, and respectfully debate potential futures.
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A Final Thought: It's Not About Being Perfect
Missing some trends is inevitable. But today's market leaders are those who missed less often — and adapted faster when they did.
Do you have "crazy idea" you're watching today that might just change everything tomorrow? Or are you still searching for one?
If you want to build a future-proof business strategy that doesn't miss the next big thing:
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📅 Schedule a demo of StratNavApp.com at https://calendly.com/chriscfox/stratnavapp-com-demo
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🔍 Or try it yourself for free at https://www.stratnavapp.com
